Syria’s Civil War Reignites as Aleppo Falls Amidst Rebel Offensive

The long-forgotten war in Syria is active, with the country being engulfed in civil strife once again. The Middle East being rife with disastrous wars, the country looked a bit calm, underlying the unease that waited to erupt. Rebels took just hours to achieve the difficult task of claiming the territory, which president Bashar-al-Assad forces had taken years to achieve.

Aleppo, the country’s largest and historical city known for once prosperous civilization, is again in the news for the wrong reasons. Snatching the city from the hold of President Assad, the rebels claim to be from militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which grew out of a former al Qaeda affiliate called Jabhat al-Nusra.

Carrying a $10 million cash reward on his head announced by the Syrian State Department, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the organization leader, seems to have moderated group policies towards sectarian and ethnic minorities. The organization has been designated as terrorist by the US, UN and others, but many are of the opinion that moderation is the key policy for it now.

Robin Yassin-Kassab, author of ‘Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War,’ stated that “it’s still an authoritarian Islamist militia, but has a much more positive policy towards sectarian and ethnic minorities than ISIS.” Analysts like Kassab see an opportunity to bring down the totalitarian Assad regime known for its brutality.

About 400 or so terrorists were killed when a combination of Russian and Syrian military jets launched airstrikes. The regions captured by the rebels have been under severe strikes since the former was attacked. An allegedly exact number has been announced by The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights as 244, with about 61 civilian casualties apart from 141 government forces.

Mixed reactions from analysts as rebels take many territories in Syria

Besides Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces being nearby have also been captured by the rebels in the latest offensive, according to a UK-based monitoring group as stated above. The sudden action has evoked mixed reactions from the analysts and activists alike.

Many in opposition to the Assad regime, while fearing the ruthless response from the Russian and Syrian sides, with Iran backing as well, hope that the rebels have a good opportunity to topple down an already despised government. Though with a caveat of a hardline ideology from the Islamist rebel conglomerate while dealing with the issues in the long run.

H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, says, “This is a very unstable situation with a huge amount of flux.” This might also affect 900 or so US troops across Syria, who are there to neutralize the group, which the Pentagon says is again regrouping.

Militants from Iran based in Iraq have crossed over to Syria to support the Assad regime, as per the sources. Backing has been assured by the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to the Syrian government and Russia is likely to follow the suit.

In 2011, the Syrian government was almost on the verge of collapse, but with the support of Russia, Iran and a covertly armed group of the Iranian regime, Hezbollah. Earlier also, Syria faced disastrous bombing from Russia, which changed the geography of Aleppo and Homs altogether and forced the rebels to run for their lives. The UN says that year the toll stood at more than 350,000 casualties, at the same time adding that it might be underreported.

The Lebanon-based group Hezbollah, however, is in a precarious position vis-à-vis indiscriminate Israel bombing. Apart from that, the position of Russia, Iran and Lebanon also appears to be uncertain.

Now with the scenario changing completely, where Russia is fighting its own battle in Ukraine, this has led to shifting the focus from Syria. With backing from NATO in general and the US in particular, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is entrenched in a war, whose end hopefully might be in sight with the coming of Trump rule.

Being thus the turn of the events, the Kremlin has withdrawn forces from Syria, followed by a subsequent decline in the power of the Assad regime. Israel, meanwhile, has destroyed both Hezbollah and the country’s missile arsenal. And Gaza is also sailing in the same boat with its topography changed beyond recognition, courtesy of relentless pounding from Israel.

Assad regime in a weaker position than before

Assad is now in a much weaker position, according to Hellyer, a Cairo-based Russian analyst who explains further, “Iranians have also shown that their forces are stretched and perhaps not as powerful as people get them credit for.” In the same vein, however, he adds, “The Syrian regime, in coordination with the Russians and less so the Iranians, will hit them with everything they’ve got.”

The fact of the matter is that the present situation might pave a way for the ISIS to get a stronghold once again in the Syrian and Iraqi regions. In 2017, a complete annihilation of the terrorist group was claimed but the Pentagon and other Washington-based analysts believe otherwise. To prevent the ISIS from coming together, about 2,500 US forces are stationed right now in Iraq and other neighboring countries.

The US forces are also present in Syria apart from these countries, even if the role of the US is uncertain in the presently developing situation. In fact, Trump, during his first term, was very particular about withdrawing the American forces from these nations and threatened twice to go for it.

The US defense organization, Pentagon, has its own share of concerns while divulging details about what is to follow. It says that ISIS might doubly increase its terror activities year after year. Many analysts also believe that the group would be provided a chance to capture eastern parts of the city should HTS capture Deir el-Zour, formerly an ISIS bastion.

Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, said in a post on X, “As Assad’s regime moves resources to the northwest” to try to fight off the rebels, “ISIS will reap the rewards, filling vacuums” elsewhere. In another press briefing, the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington-based think tank, said that if Assad were to fall altogether, Iran may no longer be able to use Syria as a pipeline of weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah.

NEW — "Why #Assad’s Regime Is Collapsing So Quickly — While nobody was looking, #Syria's regime was increasingly hollowing out."

My latest for @ForeignPolicy:https://t.co/DbiakqYCib

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) December 5, 2024

Recently, on X, a post from Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, said, “Much as I oppose the Assad regime, its atrocities and abuses, what is happening in Aleppo right now is terrifying. Many will die.” It’s, however, another matter that what might come after Assad’s fall is seen in the backdrop of who is going to fill in the vacuum. That sort of is dreaded, as Doyle adds his own view: “If there was a chance of a lovely peaceful outcome to the benefit of Syrians, I would be thrilled. This is unlikely.”